Pivots and Predictability

If You're Unpredictable, Geopolitical Pivots Can Happen Fast

Last week a politician wrote, “Turkey will soon be moving forward with its long-planned operation into Northern Syria. U.S. Armed Forces will not support or be involved in the operation, and U.S. forces, having defeated the ISIS Caliphate, will no longer be in the area.” 

The same day a different politician praised that course of action and noted the United States should focus instead on larger geopolitical issues such as China and East Asia.

The problem is everything is connected.

The U.S. National Defense Strategy states, “Long-term strategic competitions with China and Russia are the principal priorities for the Department of Defense.” “The willingness of rivals to abandon aggression will depend on their perception of U.S. strength and the vitality of our alliances." 

The strategy reads, “Be Strategically Predictable.” To strengthen alliances, “We will uphold our commitments…”  

The same day as the politician’s announcement, a journalist wrote, “[The politician’s] message will be heard globally; In east Asia, where China's neighbors are squeezed between a U.S. they depend on militarily and a China they rely on for growth. They cannot place trust in America.” 

A week later, a different journalist observed, “Wow. When geopolitical pivots happen, they can happen incredibly quickly.”